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Fausto

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 91

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

54%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 20/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/07/2025 · OR 93 par20/07C6OR 93C6 @ Del Mar 30/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Santa Anita 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 98 par9/01C6OR 98C6 @ Santa Anita 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 92 parC9 @ Santa Anita 03/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 126 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 90 par3/04C9OR 90C7 @ Santa Anita 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 92 parC9 @ Santa Anita 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 1m1f Fm 126 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 89 par13/06C9OR 89C9 @ Del Mar 02/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 125 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 93 parC6 @ Del Mar 08/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m110y 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 90 par8/09C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Del Mar?7th4th+3
2026-08-02Del Mar?8th8th0
2026-06-13Santa Anita?2nd2nd0
2026-04-19Santa Anita?3rd1st+2
2026-04-03Santa Anita?2nd2nd0
2026-02-28Santa Anita?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0728/0213/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20254th13/266%50%-0.16
30/08/20254th8/158%67%+0.09
09/01/20264th7/163%40%-0.23
28/02/20263rd16/116%60%+0.44
03/04/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
19/04/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
13/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
02/08/20268th9/276%30%-0.46
08/09/20267th50/10%45%+0.45