Moluccan

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 91

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 1f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

12%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-19	Del Mar	?	10th	7th	+3	3.0
2025-11-29	Churchill Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-10-26	Churchill Downs	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength31%

Delivery trend -17.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/10/2025	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
29/11/2025	5th	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
19/07/2026	10th	14/1	26%	10%	-0.16