2
Jordi Bear
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 111
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | -3th | +5 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | BHA82 | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2025-08-30 | Curragh | BHA75 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-07-18 | Down Royal | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 18/07/2025 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 23% | -0.58 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |