4
Crucible
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 80
Santa Anita · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |