1
My Man Joe Roldan
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Santa Anita · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 08/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |