7
Gericault
7yo Gelding · 0-0
Toulouse · Gd Px Dynavena - Gd Px Des Vendanges - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 3
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 1 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-01-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Vincennes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 14/12/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 18/09/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.01 |
| 28/01/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |