7
Lumiere Du Chene
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De L'amicale Midi Pyrenees Auvergne - Attele · 1m 6f 146y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Agen | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Toulouse | 5 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 26/12/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 08/02/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |