5
Lampedusa
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Castelsarrasin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 7
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 5 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Agen | 6 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Vichy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +34.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2024 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 76% | +0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |