8
Lilona Du Padoueng
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Castelsarrasin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#12
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 7
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Langon-Libourne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Toulouse | 5 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Chatelaillon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Marseille | 6 | +1 | ||
| 2025-05-22 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2024 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/07/2024 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/03/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 22/05/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |