13
Lily De Trouville
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Castelsarrasin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 7
Class gap: +7.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Agen | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-01-31 | Toulouse | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-01-16 | Toulouse | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-01-10 | Toulouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Chartres | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +30.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2024 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/01/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |