2
Lizy Du Vivier
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Castelsarrasin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#5
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength18%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 7
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-01-23 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 6 | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-23 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-09-15 | Laval | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-22 | Les Sables | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 2-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
Delivery trend +10.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 54% | -0.04 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 22/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |