12
Lovely Girl Elge
5yo Filly · 0-0
Toulouse · Prix De Castelsarrasin - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#11
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 7
Class gap: +7.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | Beaumont-De-Lomagne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Toulouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -38.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 58% | -0.27 |