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16

Lord De Brion

5yo Gelding · 0-0

Vincennes · Prix Ella - Attele · 1m 6f 36y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Angers 01/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f90y Std 01/10C?C0 @ Vincennes 03/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 0C0 @ Vincennes 21/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 1m2f96y Std 021/12C?4 @ Saint Brieuc 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m4f176y Std 0C0 @ Meslay Du Maine 28/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 028/05C?C0 @ Vichy 30/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 0C0 @ Saint-Malo 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m6f146y Std 05/08C?C0 @ Divonne Les Bains 18/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m4f203y Std 04 @ Vincennes 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 1m6f36y Std 04/094projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Vincennes42nd2nd0
2026-08-18Divonne Les Bains?1st1st0
2026-08-05Saint-Malo?2nd2nd0
2026-06-30Vichy?4th4th0
2026-05-28Meslay Du Maine?7th7th0
2026-05-10Chatelaillon?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1030/045/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/10/20259th33/10%47%+0.47
03/11/20252nd4/179%93%+0.14
21/12/20254th6/492%79%-0.14
30/04/20268th66/10%30%+0.30
28/05/20267th33/10%25%+0.25
30/06/20264th9/488%77%-0.11
05/08/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44
18/08/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
04/09/20262nd5/287%93%+0.06