9
Lord Thomas
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Ella - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#12
Rank
Odds
55/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Laval | 6 | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-08-20 | Divonne Les Bains | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-23 | Mauquenchy | 6 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mauquenchy | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Cordemais | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Le Mans | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 16/03/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |