15
Luciano Vredebest
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Ella - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Lisieux | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Vichy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Vincennes | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-14 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 30/05/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |
| 17/07/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 36% | -0.48 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |