4
Lucky Sotho
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Ella - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#14
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Pornichet | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-21 | Les Sables | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saint-Malo | 6 | −2 | ||
| 2026-05-24 | Saint-Malo | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Vire | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-29 | Chartres | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 29/06/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 62% | +0.14 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |