12
Lunik Du Choquel
5yo Colt · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Ella - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#2
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Enghien | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-06-16 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Vincennes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vincennes | 4 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1673% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 11/06/2024 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 30/10/2024 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 23/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |