2
Lempicka Sept
5yo Filly · 9-13
Vincennes · Prix Gauricus - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Laval | 5 | −2 | ||
| 2026-03-27 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-17 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Caen | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Nantes | 5 | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/10/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 18/12/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 21/02/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |