13
Lolly Star
5yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Massalia - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mauquenchy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vincennes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Laval | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Vincennes | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 25/11/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 47% | -0.14 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 91% | +0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 93% | +0.05 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 53% | -0.35 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |