14
Mexica Bella
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Alexandra - Attele · 1m 6f 36y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vincennes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Argentan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cabourg | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cholet | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Saint-Malo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Lisieux | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 26/03/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |