12
Natcho Up Star
3yo Colt · 9-6
Vincennes · Prix Byblis - Monte · 1m 2f 205y
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Le Mans | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Chartres | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Chartres | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -10.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |