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7

Nelson Melody

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Vincennes · Prix Byblis - Monte · 1m 2f 205y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength6%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Caen 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 1m4f39y Std 025/0455 @ Cabourg 21/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f41y Std 021/085C0 @ Cabourg 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 1m5f147y Std 13216/09C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Cabourg?2nd2nd0
2026-08-29Lisieux5−1
2026-08-21Cabourg57th8th−1
2026-06-30Le Mont-Saint-Michel?0
2026-06-14Cherbourg?0
2026-05-06Graignes?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0421/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +51.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20268th17/255%46%-0.09
21/08/20267th28/10%40%+0.40
16/09/20262nd100/10%93%+0.93