8
Nevada Smith
3yo Gelding · 9-6
Vincennes · Prix Byblis - Monte · 1m 2f 205y
#13
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Mauquenchy | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Graignes | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-16 | Mauquenchy | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Vincennes | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +18.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 10/09/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |