IvyArcIvyArc
7

Pat's Holiday

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 58

Woodbine · Race 1 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 7f 110y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 24/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m110y Gd 120 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 74 par24/07C9OR 74C9 @ Woodbine 21/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 72 · 7f110y Fm 120 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 72 parC9 @ Woodbine 25/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m110y 118 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 68 par25/09C9OR 68C9 @ Woodbine 23/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 68 parC9 @ Woodbine 13/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 69 par13/11C9OR 69C9 @ Woodbine 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 68 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 68 parC9 @ Woodbine 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 67 par12/12C9OR 67C7 @ Woodbine 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m Fm 124 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 62 parC7 @ Woodbine 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 59 par27/08C7OR 59projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Woodbine?4th4th0
2026-07-23Woodbine?4th4th0
2025-12-12Woodbine?8th10th−2
2025-11-28Woodbine?3rd5th−2
2025-11-13Woodbine?5th7th−2
2025-10-23Woodbine?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0723/1012/1227/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength65%

Delivery trend +13.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20252nd2/189%88%-0.02
21/08/20257th7/491%14%-0.77
25/09/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
23/10/20255th5/287%64%-0.23
13/11/20255th6/168%69%+0.01
28/11/20253rd15/261%67%+0.06
12/12/20258th25/10%13%+0.13
23/07/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
27/08/20264th25/10%57%+0.57