Apeldoorn
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 62
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 26/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 28/08/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |