6
Full Star
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 63
Woodbine · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |