Chanchito
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |