6
Alfred Bellows
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |