Cotton
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2025-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/01/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 04/05/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 18/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 07/06/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 27/07/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |