Noisy Cricket
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/12/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |