Madam Gwen
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |