7
Le Grand Garcon
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength87%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/07/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |