4
Earendel
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |