Hard To Capture
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 84
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |