Spirit Bear

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 82

Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Fort Erie	?	2nd	-2th	+3	5.0
2026-08-10	Fort Erie	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-07-21	Fort Erie	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-07-10	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-06	Woodbine	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-15	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength52%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/10/2025	5th	5/1	74%	33%	-0.40
29/11/2025	3rd	7/1	63%	67%	+0.04
13/12/2025	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
15/05/2026	3rd	13/8	91%	60%	-0.31
06/06/2026	5th	9/4	88%	33%	-0.55
10/07/2026	3rd	10/11	95%	60%	-0.35
21/07/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02
10/08/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
07/09/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	83%	-0.07