Verdejo
7yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |