You Be The Judge
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 20/03/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |