3
American Decision
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 87
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +8.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |