Ninja Star
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 93
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 07/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 29/03/2026 | 10th | 2/1 | 89% | 10% | -0.79 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |