This Dude A Breeze
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 89
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/09/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 14% | -0.73 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |