12
True Shot
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |