9
Applejack Poet
9yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 79
Worcester · CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Chase · 2m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength52%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sedgefield | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-28 | Sedgefield | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-12 | Stratford | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 17/08/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 45% | +0.03 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |