Turpin Gold
10yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Worcester · CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Chase · 2m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Worcester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Stratford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Kempton | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Ffos Las | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 24/11/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |