Kayf Dancer
8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 121
Worcester · Read Johnny Burke's Blog At CopyBet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Cartmel | 2 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Exeter | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Newbury | 4 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Chepstow | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2023 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 29/10/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 1/14 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 06/12/2025 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |