IvyArcIvyArc
2

Turndlightsdownlow

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 127

Worcester · Read Johnny Burke's Blog At CopyBet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won back-to-back 21f handicap hurdles at Kempton in the autumn and has continued to progress when finishing second all 3 starts at up to 3m thereafter. Boasts an appealing profile now sent chasing on return to action and no surprise to see him make his mark for stable amongst the winners.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Cartmel 24/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m6f31y Gd 15824/0544 @ Fontwell 07/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f29y Goo 1587/0944 @ Kempton 19/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 95 · 2m5f Goo 153 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 95 par19/104OR 954 @ Kempton 10/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 105 · 2m5f Gd 160 · beat its mark10/11/2025 · OR 105 par10/114OR 1052 @ Sandown 06/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 114 · 2m7f103y Sft 144 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/12/2025 · OR 114 par6/122OR 1143 @ Wincanton 15/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 121 · 3m150y Hvy 159 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 121 par15/013OR 1212 @ Kempton 14/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 125 · 2m5f Goo 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 125 par14/032OR 125projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-14Kempton22nd1st+1
2026-01-15Wincanton32nd2nd0
2025-12-06Sandown22nd1st+1
2025-11-10Kempton41st2nd−1
2025-10-19Kempton41st2nd−1
2025-09-07Fontwell42nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0510/1114/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20254th5/174%57%-0.17
07/09/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
19/10/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
10/11/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
06/12/20252nd9/488%83%-0.05
15/01/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
14/03/20262nd11/271%92%+0.21