2
Coastguard Station
10yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 120
Worcester · CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fakenham | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Hereford | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Newbury | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |