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Karnaval Point

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 124

Worcester · CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual chase winner in France. Wasted no time repeating that feat for new yard in the first half of the summer but the handicapper has been winning the argument since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Auteuil 01/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m5f191y Hvy 1571/03C?C0 @ Lyon-Parilly 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f83y Hvy 158C8 @ Auteuil 13/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 2m2f86y Ver 15213/04C84 @ Worcester 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 108 · 2m4f Gd 156 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 108 par4 @ Uttoxeter 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 117 · 2m4f189y Gd 166 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 117 par4/064OR 1174 @ Uttoxeter 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 119 · 3m10y Gd 168 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 119 par2 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 120 · 2m7f70y Gd 158 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 120 par26/072OR 1203 @ Cartmel 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 125 · 2m5f34y Goo 168 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 125 par2 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 125 · 2m4f Gd 164 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 125 par10/092OR 125projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester25th5th0
2026-08-31Cartmel33rd4th−1
2026-07-26Uttoxeter26th6th0
2026-07-07Uttoxeter41st3rd−2
2026-06-04Uttoxeter43rd5th−2
2026-05-22Worcester41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0322/0526/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -10.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20264th20/10%75%+0.75
15/03/20266th11/486%38%-0.48
13/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
22/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
04/06/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
07/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
26/07/20266th11/271%38%-0.34
31/08/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09
10/09/20265th7/282%0%-0.82