11
Martin's Denuo
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 108
Worcester · CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -4.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Fontwell | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-06 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | −6 | ||
| 2025-12-25 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 8th | 15th | −6 |
| 2025-12-11 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | −6 | ||
| 2025-12-01 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 30/03/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 11/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 25/12/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |