4
Pep Talking
8yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 117
Worcester · CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-15 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Huntingdon | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Chepstow | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-23 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength54%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |