3
Regal Renaissance
8yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 120
Worcester · CopyBet Arc Summer Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Ludlow | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Stratford | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 11/5 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |